Vermont Environmental Consortium

And

BRATTLEBORO REFORMER

November 28, 2007
What's in Vermont's Future? VCRD Wants Your Vision
by
Daniel Hecht

We’re all futurologists. Cognitive neuroscientists agree that prediction is a primary function of our seeming excess of grey matter and one of the main reasons for our evolutionary success.

It’s a computational, not a paranormal, phenomenon: Our brains continuously assess the present and compare it to past experiences, unconsciously modeling and testing future scenarios. Run that yellow light? In a heartbeat, we assess the motion of other vehicles and the proximity of police, and project a future in which we do, or don’t, get mashed or ticketed in our rush through the intersection.

Too often, we restrict our considerations to a short time horizon: We’re so busy, there’s so much needing immediate attention. But by not pondering the long term, we risk overlooking dangers ahead, or failing to recognize opportunities. Worse, perhaps, we don’t consider what we’d like to see in the future; we don’t articulate goals and aspirations.

To counter this tendency, Vermont Council on Rural Development has launched a new forum, the Council on the Future of Vermont (CFV). Initiated by VCRD executive director Paul Costello, it’s an ambitious two-year effort intended to encourage Vermonters to look forward, assess the forces shaping their lives, and consider the choices they face.

The principle is simple: If we envision a desirable future – and come to some agreement on what that is -- we stand a better chance of attaining it.

For its first forum, the 20-member council recently heard from three people with very different backgrounds. I was flattered to be invited to join Chuck Ross, Sen. Leahy’s Vermont chief of staff, and John Cohn, one of 62 Fellows retained by IBM to advise on the broader ramifications of technology.

Chuck Ross led off, bringing to bear a lifetime of experience in agriculture, environmental issues, and government. “Environmental destruction is the challenge of this generation,” he said. We’ve come up against nature’s limits: Global warming, deforestation, exhausted aquifers, widespread toxic pollution, and collapsing fish populations threaten our survival.

The silver lining is Vermont’s potential position as a leader in the quest for solutions. Chuck believes that market-based solutions have great promise to remedy the problems we’ve created; Vermont is well positioned to leverage our high quality of life to attract innovators, build intellectual capital, and nurture creativity and entrepreneurship – a “knowledge economy.”

Our smallness helps, too. “At the community level, we have a terrific opportunity to develop solutions that can be replicated elsewhere,” Chuck said. Exporting the products of these knowledge-based and green enterprises can stimulate economic growth and create jobs of every kind.

For my stint as a futurologist, I focused on three interdependent, increasingly convergent concerns: the environment, democracy, and economics.
Real democracy is already in retreat in much of the world, and historically, according to Jared Diamond in Collapse, competition for dwindling resources has tended to beget oppressive governments that control resources for the benefit of powerful elites.

To avoid the fate of the Easter Islanders, we’ll need to reaffirm and refresh democracy’s principles with modern concepts and data. Have we, or have we not, been endowed by our Creator with an inalienable right to breathable air, drinkable water, or equal access to nature’s material gifts? With environmental crises looming, we’ll be needing a theory of democracy that can address such questions.

The Soviet Union’s demise demonstrated that a rigidly state-controlled economy can cause human misery as well as ruinous pollution and resource exploitation. But how’s corporate capitalism doing? High profits require expedient extraction of value from nature, not concern for the mess left afterwards. Throughout the world, companies are leveling mountains, stripping forests, exterminating marine life, and destroying regional cultures.

Fortunately, solutions are already being conceived here in Vermont. The huge membership of Vermont Businesses for Social Responsibility signals an important evolution in business theory, practice, and values. Our ornery, democratically-empowered citizenry, working in our small communities, can experiment with ways to combine economic development with environmental sustainability. Renewable energy is inherently distributed and local, providing opportunities for many small businesses in place of a few titans, democratizing energy and the wealth it creates.

John Cohn, the technology wizard, envisioned a society increasingly shaped by cyber-tech. Soon, he said, computers with specific artificial intelligence capacities will do particular functions with greater autonomy and effectiveness, transforming job markets as well as lifestyles.

Universal broadband access will help create the knowledge economy, John said, by allowing anyone, anywhere, to easily conduct research, exchange data, and converse. With distance from urban centers no longer a factor, business owners can locate here simply to enjoy Vermont’s quality of life. Cyber-commuting will reduce the need for cars and the polluting fuels they run on.

John believes people will spend more time online, interacting with others around the globe in work and play. This will produce profound cultural and social changes, as people develop networks of spatially-dispersed relationships; using ever-improving interactive Web technology, we’ll seek out like-minded people, creating virtual communities based on shared affinities rather than accidents of geographical location.

Only time will tell whether the three of us were reading the tea leaves rightly. So what’s your vision? The CFV will be holding forums throughout the state to hear the views of Vermonters from all walks of life. Visit the VCRD website at www.vtrural.org to learn more -- it’s a great opportunity to help envision a future that’s worth living to witness.

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Daniel Hecht is a novelist and executive director of Vermont Environmental Consortium. For more information on any Green Grapevine topic, contact vec@norwich.edu.

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